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Forecasting with exponential smoothing by Anne B. Koehler, J. Keith Ord, Ralph D. Snyder, Rob Hyndman

Forecasting with exponential smoothing Anne B. Koehler, J. Keith Ord, Ralph D. Snyder, Rob Hyndman ebook
Page: 356
Format: pdf
ISBN: 3540719164, 9783540719168
Publisher: Springer

Moreover, the most recent sales figures typically are more indicative of future sales, so there is often a need to have a forecasting system that places greater weight on more recent observations. However, we can also use smoothing to fill in missing values and/or conduct a forecast. Public class TripleExponentialSmoothingModel extends AbstractTimeBasedModel. It is used alot in retail and service industries. When this drop is overlooked AND combined with a naive forecasting method, the combination can lead to extremely poor inventory management and overstocks. Develop a forecast for years 2 through 12 using exponential smoothing with = .4 and a forecast for year 1 of 6. Plot your new forecast on a graph with the actual data and the naive forecast. Method Introduction, Model Characteristics, Forecasting Steps, Objective Settings (ex: Consumer Price Index), Method Selection, Model Building, Model Evaluation. Choose, giving your reasons, which exponential smoothing method is likely to be the most suitable for producing forecasts with this data set. Triple exponential smoothing - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the. Exponential smoothing is the most used of all forecasting techniques and appears in all computer based forecasting applications. ToyProblems - Exponential Smoothing.